Construction output is forecast to increase 5.5% this year before slowing to 4.0% in 2016 and 3.4% in 2017. Dr Noble Francis, Economics Director, said:  “Construction output is forecast to increase 5.5% in 2015, which is more than double the rate of growth for the UK economy, due to growth in the three key sectors of construction; private housing, commercial and infrastructure. Over the following two years, however, construction output is forecast to be adversely affected by the UK’s most uncertain election in more than 40 years.

“The lag between construction contracts and work on the ground means that construction activity in 2015 probably won’t be impacted, since the majority of work for the year has already been planned. Instead, we expect a break in private and public investment this year for future projects, which in turn will lead to slower construction growth of 4.0% in 2016 and 3.4% in 2017.

“Although fewer homes are being built than we need each year, private house building growth is forecast to slow to 5.0% in 2016 and 3.0% in 2017. Again, this is primarily due to uncertainty regarding government policy such as Help to Buy, which has otherwise stimulated house building in the last two years. This means that despite five years of recovery projected to 2017, private house building at that time is still forecast to be 19.2% lower than at the pre-recession 2007 peak. Similarly, increases in commercial activity are likely to be constrained by a hiatus in business investment this year due to the election, with growth in the sector expected to slow to 5.2% in 2016 and 4.4% in 2017.

“One area expected to be largely unaffected by the election is infrastructure activity, which is anticipated to increase throughout the forecast period to 2018. Strong growth of 7.6% this year is expected to accelerate to 9.2% in 2016 and 10.6% in 2017 owing to the £466 billion pipeline of work under the National Infrastructure Plan. This includes large projects such as the £1.5bn A14 redevelopment, the £4.2bn Thames Tideway Tunnel and, eventually, the £16bn Hinckley Point C nuclear power station.”

“Overall,” Dr Francis concluded, “the Construction Products Association forecasts construction output surpassing the pre-recession peak next year, and expect output in 2018 to be 17.9% higher than in 2014. For this to materialise, however, industry will need to work together with the new government to address the need for greater investment in capacity and skills.”

Click here to view the Construction Enquirer article

Retrofitting our homes to reduce heat loss in winter is increasing the risk of summertime overheating: true or false?

With the industry’s focus currently on retrofitting our homes to reduce heat loss in winter, are we increasing the risk of summertime overheating?

Whether you’re a designer, developer, housing manager or social and health care professional, you need to know the facts so, for those who missed attending our tackling overheating in homes workshop last month a recording is now available so you can now catch up.  We heard from ARUP about their urban heat risk research which has highlighted the risks of overheating where physical factors coincide with building forms conducive to risk and vulnerable people. The latest evidence review reports from the Zero Carbon Hub’s overheating project were introduced, and demonstrate that there is still a need for the industry to find consensus on how we design, operate and occupy our homes to avoid summertime overheating.  Our final presentation focused on thermal modelling of dwellings in South Wales and assessed how planting can help with shading and natural ventilation strategies.

You can watch a recording of our workshop here, alternatively presentations slides can be accessed here.  

As you will be aware, the Minister for Finance and Government Business issued a Consultation Paper on proposals for a Land Transaction Tax to replace Stamp Duty Land Tax in Wales in 2018.  

As one Welsh Government key stakeholders, they wanted to remind you that they are now over half way through the consultation period with just 3 weeks left to respond. 

Please could you forward this link to any of your networks and forums or feel free to include it in any communications that you send to your members/stakeholders. 

The consultation, including details of how to respond, can be found at: here